IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+11.2	#36
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	62.5	#325
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+5.2	#52

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+6.0	#29

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.3%	0.5%	0.0%
#1 Seed	2.2%	3.4%	0.9%
Top 2 Seed	5.3%	7.9%	2.0%
Top 4 Seed	11.9%	17.3%	5.2%
Top 6 Seed	19.0%	26.4%	9.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid	61.8%	71.4%	49.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	41.0%	52.6%	28.7%
Average Seed	8.1	7.5	9.2

.500 or above	94.7%	97.8%	90.9%
.500 or above in Conference	96.6%	98.0%	94.9%
Conference Champion	47.7%	53.7%	40.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	4.6%	4.6%	4.7%
First Round	59.3%	69.0%	47.3%
Second Round	32.8%	40.4%	23.5%
Sweet Sixteen	14.2%	18.4%	9.0%
Elite Eight	6.2%	8.3%	3.6%
Final Four	2.7%	3.6%	1.4%
Championship Game	1.1%	1.7%	0.5%
National Champion	0.6%	0.8%	0.3%

Next Game: UCLA (Home) - 55.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	1 - 1	1 - 2
Quad 2	4 - 3	5 - 5
Quad 3	9 - 2	15 - 7
Quad 4	5 - 0	20 - 7

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	27	UCLA	W	67-66	56%
Nov 27, 2020	119	UC Irvine	W	72-61	85%
Dec 02, 2020	112	Colorado St.	W	77-67	82%
Dec 04, 2020	112	Colorado St.	W	77-67	82%
Dec 10, 2020	25	@ Arizona St.	L	72-77	31%
Dec 18, 2020	54	BYU	W	73-69	66%
Dec 22, 2020	74	St. Mary's	W	66-63	62%
Dec 31, 2020	102	@ UNLV	W	70-66	62%
Jan 02, 2021	102	@ UNLV	W	70-66	62%
Jan 07, 2021	104	Nevada	W	77-67	80%
Jan 09, 2021	104	Nevada	W	77-67	80%
Jan 14, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	W	67-66	52%
Jan 16, 2021	75	@ Utah St.	W	67-66	51%
Jan 22, 2021	225	@ Air Force	W	77-65	85%
Jan 24, 2021	225	@ Air Force	W	77-65	84%
Jan 28, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	73-58	89%
Jan 30, 2021	169	Wyoming	W	73-58	89%
Feb 03, 2021	180	@ New Mexico	W	77-68	78%
Feb 05, 2021	180	@ New Mexico	W	77-68	78%
Feb 08, 2021	282	San Jose St.	W	85-64	96%
Feb 10, 2021	282	San Jose St.	W	85-64	96%
Feb 18, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	W	68-61	73%
Feb 20, 2021	150	@ Fresno St.	W	68-61	73%
Feb 25, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	74-66	74%
Feb 27, 2021	86	Boise St.	W	74-66	74%
Projected Record						18 - 7	15 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.2	1.1	3.6	7.4	10.9	12.1	8.6	3.8		47.7	1st
2nd												0.0	0.2	1.5	4.3	5.9	6.4	3.3	0.7	0.0	0.0		22.3	2nd
3rd												0.2	1.3	3.7	4.0	2.5	0.6	0.1					12.3	3rd
4th										0.0	0.2	0.9	2.6	2.6	1.0	0.2	0.0						7.5	4th
5th									0.0	0.1	0.9	1.7	1.4	0.3	0.1								4.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.1	0.6	1.1	0.7	0.2	0.0									2.7	6th
7th							0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.4	0.1											1.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0												0.9	8th
9th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.4	9th
10th			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0															0.2	10th
11th				0.0	0.0	0.0																	0.0	11th

Total			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.8	1.7	2.6	3.5	5.6	8.3	10.4	12.2	14.4	14.3	12.9	8.6	3.8			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	3.8		3.8	0.0
19-1	99.4%	8.6		8.4	0.2	0.0
18-2	94.2%	12.1		10.7	1.4	0.0
17-3	76.6%	10.9		8.1	2.6	0.1
16-4	51.6%	7.4		4.3	2.8	0.3	0.0
15-5	29.2%	3.6		1.4	1.6	0.5	0.0
14-6	10.5%	1.1		0.3	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.0
13-7	2.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	47.7%	47.7		37.0	9.1	1.4	0.2	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	3.8%		100.0%	70.3%	29.7%	2.5		1.3	1.1	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0							100.0%
19-1	8.6%		99.3%	63.2%	36.0%	4.2		0.8	1.5	1.5	1.6	1.0	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0				0.1		98.0%
18-2	12.9%		96.1%	51.0%	45.2%	6.7		0.1	0.4	0.7	1.3	1.6	1.7	1.6	1.6	1.4	1.1	0.6	0.3	0.0				0.5		92.1%
17-3	14.3%		88.0%	45.5%	42.4%	8.7			0.0	0.1	0.3	0.7	0.9	1.4	1.8	2.5	2.2	1.9	0.7	0.1				1.7		77.9%
16-4	14.4%		73.4%	36.1%	37.3%	10.0					0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.9	2.5	2.6	1.7	0.2	0.0			3.8		58.4%
15-5	12.2%		55.5%	29.3%	26.3%	10.9						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.6	1.5	2.1	1.8	0.5	0.0			5.4		37.1%
14-6	10.4%		37.2%	24.4%	12.8%	11.4								0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.1	1.5	0.5	0.0			6.5		17.0%
13-7	8.3%		23.0%	17.4%	5.6%	11.8										0.0	0.2	0.3	0.9	0.4	0.1			6.4		6.8%
12-8	5.6%		13.6%	11.7%	1.9%	12.4											0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0		4.8		2.2%
11-9	3.5%		10.2%	10.0%	0.3%	12.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		3.2		0.3%
10-10	2.6%		4.2%	4.2%		13.8													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5
9-11	1.7%		2.3%	2.3%		15.0															0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6
8-12	0.8%		4.2%	4.2%		15.5																0.0	0.0	0.8
7-13	0.4%		2.3%	2.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.4
6-14	0.2%		3.3%	3.3%		16.0																	0.0	0.2
5-15	0.1%																							0.1
4-16	0.0%																							0.0
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18	0.0%																							0.0
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		61.8%	35.2%	26.6%	8.1		2.2	3.0	2.9	3.7	3.6	3.5	4.2	4.9	6.9	8.1	8.8	7.3	2.0	0.4	0.1	0.1	38.2		41.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.8%	100.0%	1.5	64.3	26.3	8.4	1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.3	37.3	21.8	23.6	3.6	13.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	2.0	25.0	55.4	18.8	0.9